The Shadow Diplomacy Project
An independent Track-II youth initiative simulating diplomatic decision-making through policy memo analysis of ongoing international disputes.
Analytical Approach
The Shadow Diplomacy Project produces rigorous, multi-perspective policy analysis on live geopolitical conflicts. Our work examines international disputes through the strategic lenses of involved state actors, adhering to principles of international law and diplomatic protocol.
Each analysis simulates the internal deliberation process of foreign ministries, weighing strategic interests against operational constraints to develop viable policy options for conflict resolution or management.
Recent Focus Areas
Current analytical work focuses on disputes in the South China Sea, Eastern European security architecture, Arctic resource governance, and Indo-Pacific strategic balancing. Memos examine these issues from the perspectives of claimant states, regional powers, and affected multilateral institutions.
About Track-II Diplomacy
Concept and Purpose
Track-II diplomacy refers to unofficial, informal interactions between members of adversarial groups or nations that aim to develop strategies, influence public opinion, and organize human and material resources in ways that might help resolve their conflict.
Unlike official Track-I diplomacy conducted by government representatives, Track-II initiatives involve academic, NGO, or other non-state actors who can explore solutions outside formal constraints, generating innovative approaches to intractable disputes.
The Shadow Diplomacy Project Approach
This initiative applies Track-II principles to simulate diplomatic decision-making through structured policy memos. We analyze live geopolitical conflicts by assuming the institutional perspectives of involved state actors, examining strategic interests, legal arguments, and operational constraints.
Our analysis maintains strict neutrality, avoiding advocacy positions in favor of balanced assessments grounded in international law, strategic studies, and diplomatic practice. The project emphasizes analytical rigor over political persuasion, examining conflicts as systems of competing interests rather than moral dichotomies.
Analytical Framework
Our work is informed by principles of international relations theory, comparative foreign policy analysis, and international legal jurisprudence. We prioritize primary sources—treaties, official statements, and diplomatic correspondence—supplemented by scholarly literature from leading academic journals and policy institutes.
Policy Memos
Analytical memos simulating diplomatic decision-making from multiple state perspectives on ongoing international disputes.
Strategic Options in the South China Sea Arbitration Implementation
March 15, 2023 · PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs Perspective
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Balancing Energy Security and Alliance Commitments: The Nord Stream 2 Calculus
February 28, 2023 · German Federal Foreign Office Perspective
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Arctic Council Governance and Resource Development Protocols
January 12, 2023 · Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs Perspective
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The Taiwan Strait Status Quo: Assessment of Deterrence Options
December 5, 2022 · United States Department of State Perspective
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African Union Mediation in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Negotiations
November 18, 2022 · Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Perspective
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EU Strategic Autonomy and Transatlantic Security Cooperation
October 30, 2022 · French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs Perspective
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Methodology
Source Material
Analyses are grounded in primary diplomatic documents and official statements, supplemented by scholarly literature from leading academic journals and policy institutes. Source materials include:
- International treaties, conventions, and agreements
- Official government statements, white papers, and policy documents
- United Nations Security Council resolutions and General Assembly proceedings
- International Court of Justice rulings and advisory opinions
- Peer-reviewed academic literature in international relations and law
- Think tank reports and policy briefs from established institutions
Analytical Neutrality
The project maintains strict analytical neutrality. Memos simulate institutional perspectives without endorsing political positions. Our objective is to understand strategic calculations within their operative constraints, not to advocate for particular outcomes.
All analyses undergo internal review to ensure balanced representation of competing legal arguments and strategic interests, with particular attention to avoiding systemic bias toward any state perspective or ideological framework.
Memo Structure
Issue Brief
Contextual overview of the dispute, including historical background, relevant international legal frameworks, and current diplomatic status.
Strategic Interests
Analysis of core national interests at stake for the simulated actor, including security, economic, political, and reputational dimensions.
Policy Options
Three to five viable policy responses, ranging from status quo maintenance to escalation or diplomatic innovation. Each option includes implementation pathways and resource requirements.
Risk Assessment
Evaluation of potential consequences for each policy option, including likely responses from other actors, international reaction, and long-term strategic implications.
Recommendation
One policy option identified as most viable given strategic priorities and operational constraints, with justification based on the preceding analysis.